2050 Atlantic hurricane season (Steve)
The 2050 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average season that produced 15 tropical depressions, 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. By 2016 standards, this would have been considered slightly above average. The season officially began on June 1, 2050, and ended on November 30, 2050. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the northern Atlantic basin. However, as illustrated by Arthur, tropical cyclones can form at any time of the year. The season's activity was affected by near normal (for 2050) sea surface temperatures, but a slightly stronger than average Saharan Air Layer (particularly in the earlier part of the season). The SAL caused almost every storm, except for Icarius and Kinny, to form far away from Cape Verde. The 2050 season was very destructive, mostly due in part to Hyacinth's powerful Louisiana landfall, Gonzalo's impacts, and Marcus' extremely deadly Central American floods. Both Hyacinth and Marcus reached Category 5 intensity. All three names were retired after the end of the season, with their replacements being Garret, Hialeah, and Mason for the 2056 season. Also notable, Kinny lasted a long time, and was comparable to Nadine from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Both Freya and Marcus formed in unusually southern locations, with both storms making unusual South American landfalls at an intensity of Tropical Depression or higher. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:700 height:200 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:20 top:58 columnwidth:230 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/05/2050 till:01/12/2050 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2050 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:27/05/2050 till:31/05/2050 color:TS text:"Arthur (TS)" from:17/06/2050 till:21/06/2050 color:C1 text:"Becky (C1)" from:03/07/2050 till:05/07/2050 color:TS text:"Cristobal (TS)" from:16/07/2050 till:19/07/2050 color:TS text:"Denise (TS)" from:19/07/2050 till:22/07/2050 color:TS text:"Edgar (TS)" barset:break from:30/07/2050 till:04/08/2050 color:C1 text:"Freya (C1)" from:08/08/2050 till:19/08/2050 color:C4 text:"Gonzalo (C4)" from:19/08/2050 till:20/08/2050 color:TD text:"Eight (TD)" from:21/08/2050 till:03/09/2050 color:C5 text:"Hyacinth (C5)" from:07/09/2050 till:10/09/2050 color:TS text:"Icarius (TS)" barset:break from:13/09/2050 till:17/09/2050 color:C1 text:"Jasmine (C1)" from:16/09/2050 till:30/09/2050 color:C2 barset:break barset:skip from:01/10/2050 till:06/10/2050 color:C2 text:"Kinny (C2)" from:03/10/2050 till:06/10/2050 color:TS text:"Laura (TS)" from:17/10/2050 till:25/10/2050 color:C5 text:"Marcus (C5)" from:13/11/2050 till:16/11/2050 color:TS text:"Nana (TS)" bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2050 till:01/06/2050 text:May from:01/06/2050 till:01/07/2050 text:June from:01/07/2050 till:01/08/2050 text:July from:01/08/2050 till:01/09/2050 text:August from:01/09/2050 till:01/10/2050 text:September from:01/10/2050 till:01/11/2050 text:October from:01/11/2050 till:01/12/2050 text:November TextData = pos:(370,30) text:"(From the" pos:(518,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" The 2050 season began when Arthur formed near the Bahamas in late May, and struck Florida. Arthur formed pre-season, just a few days before the season's official start. Later, Hurricane Becky was a mid-Atlantic Category 1 that did not affect land during mid-June. The season began to get more active during July, the month that three tropical storms and one hurricane formed. The first tropical storm, Cristobal, affected the Veracruz region. The next one, Denise, moved between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda but didn't cause any land impacts whatsoever. The last July tropical storm was named Edgar, and that one affected the Windward Islands and Hispaniola. The final July storm of them all, Freya, was a Category 1 hurricane that made an unusual landfall in Venezuela due to it forming so far south. During August, the season produced Gonzalo, TD Eight, and Hyacinth. Both of the named storms that formed this month were major hurricanes that proved themselves to be destructive enough to be retired. Freya also crossed into August from July. The first August storm, Gonzalo, was a Category 4 hurricane that caused destruction throughout Central America and made a particularly destructive landfall in northwestern Florida. Gonzalo would later move out into the Atlantic. That storm had its name replaced by Garret for the 2056 season. Tropical Depression Eight produced minor impacts along the eastern Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle region. The last August storm (Hyacinth) proved to be absolutely destructive, being a Category 5 and affecting areas from the Leeward Islands to Florida to the U.S. Gulf Coast. That name was also retired, and was replaced by Hialeah in the 2056 season. In September, the 2050 season continued its activity, but the storms of this month were not nearly as destructive as the storms that formed in August. The first September storm was a tropical storm named "Icarius", and that storm did not affect land aside from very minor impacts in the Cape Verde islands. The second September storm was named "Jasmine". Jasmine was a Category 1 that moved in the same general region as Denise did. The third and final storm of the month, Kinny, was an incredibly long-lasting Category 2 that moved through the central Atlantic before settling in the Azores region, where it wandered, degenerated, and regenerated again. Kinny produced minor impacts throughout the Azores, with the greatest impact being in the eastern Azores where Kinny struck as a tropical storm. Activity in the basin slowed down once October started, and there were only two storms forming in October. They were Tropical Storm Laura and Hurricane Marcus, which reached Category 5 intensity. Laura did not do much in the area that it affected, the Carolinas region. Marcus was an extremely deadly and destructive storm that rampaged through Central America as a powerful major. The results of this storm were catastrophic; the floods and mudslides it produced were enough to kill thousands of people. Marcus was later retired and was replaced by Mason for the 2056 season. Only one more storm formed throughout the reminder of the season, that storm was named Nana and was a tropical storm that existed in the eastern Caribbean and struck Hispaniola. Overall, the 2050 season had near-average activity, but a few storms (namely Gonzalo, Hyacinth, and Marcus) proved to be very destructive, making this season one that will be remembered for a while to come. Storms Tropical Storm Arthur A tropical disturbance developed and popped up on the NHC's graphical tropical weather outlook on May 25 (as a special outlook). After a couple days of further organization, the disturbance was declared Tropical Depression One on May 27, kicking off the season with a pre-season start. The depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Arthur twelve hours later. The storm moved through the Bahamas over the following days, reaching its peak intensity of 70 mph/991 mbar in the process. The peak intensity was recorded soon before its landfall near Miami, Florida on May 30. Arthur weakened over land before dissipating on May 31. The storm caused minimal damage and 1 death. Hurricane Becky A tropical wave was first noted on June 15 on the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, as it organized in the central Atlantic. Environmental conditions were expected to be favorable for development, particularly for the time of year. On July 17, the tropical wave developed into the second tropical depression of the year. It strengthened enough to be named "Becky" six hours later. Becky, a well-organized tropical storm with a tight circulation, gradually strengthened over the coming days. After turning northward and not posing any threat to land, Becky became a hurricane on July 19. The storm reached its peak of 90 mph and 981 mbar that night, before strong wind shear caused its quick weakening. Becky weakened to a tropical storm on July 20 and turned extratropical the next day. Becky did not affect land; thus it didn't cause damage or deaths throughout its path. Tropical Storm Cristobal A tropical wave was being monitored by the NHC while it crossed the Yucatan. After entering favorable conditions, it became a tropical depression on July 3 in the Gulf of Mexico. Moving westward, the depression strengthened to Tropical Storm Cristobal. The storm strengthened quickly over the northern Bay of Campeche, reaching its peak of 60 mph and 995 mbar soon before landfall between Tampico and Veracruz on July 5. Soon after landfall, Cristobal dissipated over Mexico's terrain. Cristobal caused $47 million in damage and 5 deaths. Tropical Storm Denise Denise formed from a low pressure area associated with a cold front on July 16. The storm moved generally northeastward, gradually strengthening. Denise strengthened to peak at 65 mph and 993 mbar on July 18 while located between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast. After that, conditions became more unfavorable as Denise moved eastward. The storm dissipated on July 19. Denise didn't affect land, thus it didn't cause damage or deaths. Tropical Storm Edgar A tropical wave began to be monitored by the NHC on July 17. Edgar was expected to be in favorable conditions for developing. Two days later, it was declared a depression. It strengthened to be named "Edgar" twelve hours later. Edgar crossed the Windward Islands as it gradually strengthened. Its peak of 50 mph and 998 mbar was reached in the eastern Caribbean before it struck Hispaniola early on July 19. Later that day, Edgar dissipated over Hispaniola's high mountains. The storm's remnants were monitored for potential regeneration as it moved towards Florida and entered the Gulf of Mexico, before making landfall on the Gulf Coast, halting any chances of redevelopment. Throughout its path, Edgar caused $35 million dollars in damage and 8 deaths, mainly in Hispaniola. Hurricane Freya A southern latitude tropical wave organized significantly towards the end of July, prompting the NHC to monitor it. The wave developed into a depression on July 30, before becoming Tropical Storm Freya twelve hours later. Freya moved northwestward as it gradually strengthened under favorable conditions. It became a hurricane on August 1, and reached its peak of 80 mph and 988 mbar soon afterward. The storm turned slightly southwest and weakened to a tropical storm as it affected the southern Windward Islands and Venezuela. Unfavorable conditions continued weakening Freya until it weakened to TD strength on August 3. Early on August 4, Freya made a rare landfall in northwestern Venezuela and dissipated. Freya caused $52 million dollars in damage and 6 deaths throughout its path. Hurricane Gonzalo Gonzalo formed on August 8 from a well-organized tropical wave in the western Caribbean. It encountered favorable conditions, and it became a hurricane north of the Honduras coastline early on August 10. The hurricane than began a round of rapid intensification; it was a Category 4 by that night. Its peak strength was achieved during that day, and it began an eyewall replacement cycle, which weakened it to a Category 3. Gonzalo skimmed near the Yucatan Peninsula with plenty of impacts there, and continued northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions were favorable enough to allow Gonzalo to restrengthen to a Category 4 as it approached the Floridian coast. Gonzalo made landfall there late on August 13, bringing lots of destruction and deaths. The hurricane than rapidly weakened and emerged into the Atlantic as a tropical storm. Environmental conditions continued to be favorable, allowing Gonzalo to restrengthen to major hurricane strength as it passed north of Bermuda. Its third peak was 120 mph before it succumbed to cooler waters and wind shear. Gonzalo became extratropical on August 19 after over a day of weakening. In total, Gonzalo is responsible for $52 billion dollars in damage and 39 deaths, mainly in Florida and surrounding areas. The name was later retired and was replaced by Garret for the 2056 season. Tropical Depression Eight A tropical disturbance was first noted near the Bahamas on August 17. It crossed southern Florida later that day as the NHC monitored it for potential development in the Gulf of Mexico's favorable conditions. On August 19, after further organization, advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression Eight south of the Florida panhandle. It was not forecast to intensify much due to landfall coming up soon. The tropical depression failed to intensify to TS status, and make landfall east of the border of Alabama-Florida. Eight dissipated over land, and did minimal damage and no deaths. Hurricane Hyacinth A tropical wave was monitored starting on August 18 near Cape Verde. The wave moved westward and acquired convection as it moved through conducive environmental conditions. On August 21, it developed into Tropical Depression Nine. Six hours later, it strengthened to be named Hyacinth. The storm moved towards the Lesser Antilles, threatening them, especially with a strong hurricane in the forecast. The Leeward Islands were especially threatened. Late on August 22, Hyacinth strengthened to a hurricane under favorable conditions. It became a Category 2 the next day and began to impact the Lesser Antilles when it strengthened to a Category 3. Its initial peak was 120 mph and 963 mbar before weakening as it entered Puerto Rico. Early on August 26, land interaction with Hispaniola weakened Hyacinth down to a disorganized tropical storm. In Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands, damage tolls amounted to a large amount and 24 deaths were reported. Afterwards, a weakened Hyacinth moved through the Turks & Caicos Islands and restrengthened to a hurricane as it entered Bermuda. It later regained Category 2 strength before landfall near Stuart, Florida on the evening of August 28. Over land, Hyacinth once again degenerated to a tropical storm as it entered the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions in the Gulf were very favorable for rapid intensification. A combination of warm waters, low wind shear, and a lack of dry air meant good conditions for rapid intensification to occur. Early on August 30, Hyacinth restrengthened to a Category 1. Very rapid intensification followed, and it was up to Category 5 strength on August 31. With the projected path being up towards Louisiana, New Orleans was in serious trouble. The residents were preparing for "a potential catastrophe on the scale of Katrina". However, the buildings are much stronger and the levees are much stronger in 2050 than back in 2005, preventing such a catastrophe from being very likely to occur. The storm peaked at 165 mph and 910 mbar, the initial strongest of the season, before Marcus beat Hyacinth's intensity later in the year. Hyacinth moved ashore on the Louisiana Delta on September 1 and moved through New Orleans that day as it began weakening rapidly. By the next morning, Hyacinth was down to Category 2 strength as it moved further inland. The storm degenerated to a tropical depression early on September 3 and dissipated soon afterward. In total, Hyacinth caused $90 billion in damage (2050 USD) and 865 deaths. The name was later retired and was replaced by Hialeah for the 2056 season. Tropical Storm Icarius A strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa early on September 5. It was monitored by the NHC as it organized under conducive conditions. The wave developed into a tropical depression on September 7 southwest of Cape Verde. After twelve hours, Ten had strengthened to be named Icarius. The storm moved westward, and reached its peak of 45 mph and 998 mbar as dry air got entrained into the system from the SAL. The storm could not stand the dry air, and it dissipated on September 10. Icarius didn't affect anyone. Hurricane Jasmine A low developed on September 10 and entered favorable conditions, prompting the NHC to issue a Tropical Weather Outlook on it. It moved generally northeastward and became a tropical depression on September 13 with the designation "Eleven". Twelve hours later, it strengthened to Tropical Storm Jasmine. Passing north of Bermuda, conditions were conducive for strengthening. Jasmine reached hurricane strength late on September 15 and its peak of 80 mph and 986 mbar was reached the next morning. Very soon after its peak, a combination of wind shear and cooling waters weakened Jasmine to a tropical storm, and led the storm to its demise on September 17. Jasmine did not affect any land. Hurricane Kinny A well-organized tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on September 13. Immediately, the National Hurricane Center monitored the tropical wave for development. It was anticipated to encounter favorable conditions during the next few days, which would allow the wave to form. After three days of organization since it moved into the Atlantic, the wave developed into a tropical depression, assigned the designation "Twelve". After twelve hours, the depression intensified, and was named Kinny. The newly named storm continued on a westward track, where an encounter with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) prevented significant intensification. The dry air would continue preventing significant development over the next several days. Kinny finally became a hurricane on September 22 while located in the central Atlantic. The hurricane turned north at this point, and favorable conditions allowed continued intensification to a Category 2 early on September 23rd. Kinny reached its peak intensity of 110 mph and 971 mbar by that night. Afterwards, wind shear weakened Kinny down to Category 1 strength, but the shear let up, allowing reintensification to a Category 2. On September 27, Kinny once again weakened due to a combination of wind shear and dry air. This combination would continue impacting Kinny as it continued on an eastward track, and it initially dissipated late on September 30 while located south of the Azores. But then, Kinny moved southward, and was monitored for the potential to regenerate during the next 5 days. The remnants turned back westward where it entered favorable conditions, allowing the ex-Kinny system to regenerate on October 2nd. Kinny continued wandering in the region as it reintensified to a hurricane on October 4, and was once again a Category 2 early on October 5. The re-intensified Kinny was now posing a major threat to the Azores islands, and a Hurricane Warning was issued for the islands. Abruptly, Kinny turned back eastward and once again encountered unfavorable conditions, which helped Kinny begin its final weakening trend. The weakened Kinny struck the Azores as a tropical storm before dissipating for good on October 6, after being alive for nearly three weeks. Kinny caused minimal damage but 2 were killed in the Azores after the heavy rains caused flooding particularly in the eastern portion of the islands. Tropical Storm Laura An area of low pressure formed on October 1 and organized, prompting the NHC to begin monitoring the low for the potential to develop. The low entered favorable conditions, allowing it to develop into Tropical Depression Thirteen on October 3rd. The depression did not become a tropical storm until the next day. The storm, now named Laura, wandered north of the Bahamas before turning northward, on track to impact the Carolina region. Laura achieved its peak of 60 mph and 998 mbar right before it turned northward. Gradual weakening ensued and Laura was down to 45 mph when it struck the Carolina region on October 6. The storm weakened over the East Coast land, and dissipated that night. Laura, in total, was responsible for $23 million dollars in damage, and the deaths of 3 people. Hurricane Marcus A tropical wave on a relatively southern track began to be monitored by the NHC on October 14, while it was crossing the southern Windwards. The wave entered favorable environment which allowed it to develop. On October 17, it became a tropical depression. Land interaction prevented the depression from strengthening too much as it crossed the northern tip of Venezuela. Late on October 18, the tropical depression finally became a tropical storm after entering the Caribbean, and here it earned the name "Marcus". The tropical storm intensified over the following day and was upgraded to a hurricane at the next night. Rapid intensification ensued under extremely favorable conditions of 90°F waters and very little wind shear and dry air. Early on October 21, Marcus was already a Category 5 beast, threatening Central America. This potentially catastrophic storm did not stop the strengthening and was up to 180 mph and 896 mbar, the strongest of the season, by the 22nd. On the night of October 22, Marcus emerged onto northeastern Nicaragua's coastline, resulting in catastrophic floods that killed hundreds of people. Land interaction induced weakening of Marcus. It was down to a Category 2 as it re-emerged into the western Caribbean, and reintensified to a Category 3 as the storm threatened the next region on its danger list: southern Belize and Guatemala. Marcus moved ashore in southern Belize late on October 24, continuing the havoc. The storm finally started rapidly weakening over the mountains of Central America, and dissipated on October 25. All in all, Marcus caused an estimated $27.8 billion in damages, along with 10,802 deaths, becoming one of the deadliest storms of the 21st century. The name was later retired, and was replaced by Mason for use in 2056. Tropical Storm Nana A well organized tropical wave crossed through the Windward islands while the NHC monitored it for development. On November 13, the wave turned into a tropical depression, the final one of the 2050 season. Twelve hours later, it was upgraded to a tropical storm and named "Nana". This storm moved on a general northwestward track, but barely strengthened, due to the presence of wind shear. It made landfall on Hispaniola on November 16 as a disorganized, sheared tropical storm. It rapidly weakened over the island's terrain before dissipating. The remnants moved out into Cuba-Bahamas territory, but were not expected to redevelop. The tropical storm caused in total $36 million in damages, and 8 deaths. Storm names The following names were used for named storms that formed in the northern Atlantic Ocean during 2050. Retired names were announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2051. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2056 season. This is the same list used in the 2044 season, except for the name Edgar, which replaced Edouard. In the spring of 2051, the World Meteorological Organization announced the retirement of the names Gonzalo, Hyacinth, and Marcus due to the extensive devastation all three storms caused. They were replaced by Garret, Hialeah, and Mason respectively. Season effects This is a table of the storms and their effects in the 2050 Atlantic hurricane season. This table includes the storm's names, duration, peak intensity, areas affected, damages, and death totals. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2050 USD (the listed damage figure is in millions). |} Category:Future storms Category:Future hurricane seasons Category:Future Tropical Cyclone Season Category:Future Tropical Cyclone Seasons Category:Seasons with less than 20 storms Category:Seasons with amazing storms Category:Steve820's seasons